17th OCt 2009

I am back after a long time
Market View – 17th Oct 2009
1st A Happy diwali to all. Markets have rallied more than 100% in last 8 months. Nifty PE is at 23. With valuation being on the higher side. Risk reward is very less for an investor. Market cannot rise further till we have a decent correction or a sideways move. From Last Three days we have waited for our shorting range. Now the time has come. Any trade above 5150 can be taken positional short for a target of 4500 , stop loss is 5350. Remember this is a positional short. View is to hold for 1-2 months. (Note; as of now it looks risky, we shall be updating the status of this call as and when applicable). One should avoid this call only if reliance trades above 2240.

For the day Nifty faces resistance @5160 to 5200 levels, support is at 5080. As on all diwali days Markets opens +vely and takes a dip.

Go short at opening and covered at the end of the session.


Statergy:
1. Short 30% of nifty @5160 levels, as we head to 5230 we shall increase our short positions. Idea here is to cover the shorts on next correction which can take nifty to 5030 levels. (positional)

option statergy
1. Sell 5300 nov calls, when nifty moves yo 5160 levels.
2. Buy 5100 nov puts.


Stock futures and options

Stocks looking weak –All cement stocks look week. ACC, Ambujacem, Indiacem etc

Stocks Looking strong – Biocon, Bhusan, Essar, Gvk, JP, orchid, Dlf

Stocks to watch for reversal from current trend (which is currently up)- Banknifty, All banking stocks, Metal stocks

Tradinng Statergy –
(Avoid long trades)
1. Look for shorting opportunity in Banks and metal stocks, I can give u levels now as it is still in uptrend. When we say look to short means ..u have t short if day low is broken.


Results to Watch for – non

Disclaimer: This newsletter was prepared @4.00 PM on 17th oct 2009. The above mentioned views will change If any news triggers hits the market after the time and date of publishing.

6th June 2008

Market comments
Market bounced from oversold zone, thanks to European markets, which turned sentiment around. Ever Since the break of 4800 we have turned bearish for medium term. This pull should be used to square off long positions. Traders should look to short closer to 4800 levels.
With +ve global queues expect market to open close 4730-40 levels. 4740 is the 1st resistance and then 4800.
Market will remain week till noon after initial gap opening
Trading strategy: Opportunity prevails in nifty to short at opening and covering before 12 noon. Many stocks are still to see a pull back from oversold zone . Be stock specific in Trading long. Nifty traders keep options open to short
Technical /Fundamental view
(Note: the best way to utilise the moves for intraday is, when we write buy above…u have to buy immediately after it cuts our buy price and sell in the 1st move itself. Avoid trading the call for second time)
Nifty : As expected nifty pulled back from oversold zone. Now 4800 will be stiff resistance, which market might not cross in June series. Use higher levels to square longs and go short.
Apil: Above 511, consider buying this stock for a target of 530, stop 500
BEL: Above 1162, consider buying for a target of 1200

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4th June 2008

Market comments
Cabinet meet today to decide Fuel hike. Markets have already discounted -ve news from that front. Going short with that news flow would not be advisable. Yesterday we saw some short covering after huge sell of on Friday and Monday. Expect this short covering rally to continue a bit more. However any rally close to 4800 provides another opportunity to short the market. Avoid shorting at lower levels.
Fundamentally till we hear or see any signs of +ve news flow this market wont attract participation. We expect Market to be range bound with downward bias. One can consider trading range for the market as 4640 - 4800. Use extreme ends of the range to initiate trades. Play for small gains within the range.
Considering that we are in oversold zone, and Markets in bear phase, Very less trading opportunity prevails in market. Better stick with nifty trades only

Technical /Fundamental view
(Note: the best way to utilise the moves for intraday is, when we write buy above…u have to buy immediately after it cuts our buy price and sell in the 1st move itself. Avoid trading the call for second time)
Nifty : New range for Nifty is 4640 to 4800. Within the range use extreme ends to initiate trades. Considering we are in oversold zone ..technical we can see a pull back to 4800.
Aban: Technically Short term indicators are pointing downwards. Any pull closer to 3900 provides a shorting opportunity. Target 3350
Bajaj hind :Oversold technical recovery till 190 possible .
CESC: Stock has support at 452, below that stock can test 430
Divislabs: Stock has outperformed nifty, IF stock stays above 1547, it can test 1700 levels
HCL tech: Stock has support at 286, below 285 shorting candidate for a target of 277

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Subscribe to our newsletter service - Rs 1,000 per month, Intraday calls - 3,000 per month, Derivative calls - 3,000 per month

(Newsletter is just to prepare yourself before trade. But actual execution of the calls depends after watching the screen. For successful execution of calls. Join me in yahoo. ag_vikram@yahoo.com )